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Commentary: HDB Price Trends- A Decade in Review and the Road Ahead

Updated: Oct 10, 2023

The Housing and Development Board (HDB) in Singapore has witnessed a rollercoaster ride in property prices over the past decade, marked by significant fluctuations and the undeniable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As we look back from 2013 to 2023 and ahead into the post-COVID era, the question on everyone's mind is whether the upward surge in HDB prices is here to stay.

Pre-COVID: 2013-2019 - A Period of Decline

In the years leading up to the pandemic, from 2013 to 2019, the HDB market saw a 9% decline in prices.

COVID-19 Pandemic: 2020-2023 - A Dramatic Reversal

The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about a dramatic change in the HDB market landscape. Due to construction delays caused by the pandemic and pent-up demand from Singaporeans whom requires immediate housing solution, HDB prices experienced their greatest three-year increase in recent history, soaring by 35%.

Post-COVID: 2024 Onwards - The Path Forward

Now, as Singapore emerges from the pandemic and returns to a semblance of normalcy, the critical question is whether the HDB price surge will continue or if it's merely a temporary phenomenon.

  • Government's Stance on HDB as an Investment

The government has been resolute in its stance that HDB flats should not be viewed as investment vehicles. Their primary purpose is to provide affordable housing for Singaporeans. Policies have been implemented to discourage speculative buying and selling in the HDB market.

  • HDB's Supply Strategy

HDB remains committed to its plan to launch a total of 100,000 flats from 2021 to 2025. This approach is designed to meet the housing needs of Singaporeans and to ensure a stable supply of affordable housing. The government will also closely monitor the market to prevent any bubbles or excessive speculation.

  • Stagnant Number of Eligible Buyers

One notable trend that has however remained constant is the stagnant number of eligible buyers for HDB flats. While demand has been influenced by factors such as delayed construction and pent-up demand during the pandemic, the number of eligible Singaporean buyers would not be seeing significant growth based on the number of Singaporeans in Singapore.

Conclusion: Balancing Supply and Demand

In the years ahead, the HDB market may face the challenge of a surge of supply of flats coupled with stagnated demand. With the government's strong stance against HDB as an investment, Singaporeans currently holding on to their HDB in hope of continuation of reaping higher profits should weigh their risk carefully. The surge in HDB prices witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic is highly not be sustainable, and it's advisable for those looking to make a a calculated upgrade move in the near future to do so promptly.

Speak with us today for a full on-to-one analysis and breakdown of the market direction moving forward.

Source: HDB, Department of Statistics Singapore



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